Morning Brief – Turkey

Turkey

Another Thursday and another 100 basis point rate cut by the Turkish Central Bank yet again flying in the face of the facts as well as economic rectitude. And the result? a further 5% cut in the value of the Lira. Inflation at 21% and predicted to reach 30% next year which is both not sustainable and crippling for the luckless Turkish people. USD/TRL 15.53.

Norway

Meanwhile in the chillier and more prudent climate of Norway, the Central Bank, Norges Bank raised the key sight deposit rate for the second time in 3 months from 0.25% to 0.50%. The Nokkie slightly firmer with EUR/NKR at 10.17.

North Shropshire

In 2019 the Conservatives enjoyed 62% of the vote with a majority of 22,949 in this hitherto strong Tory stronghold. 14 candidates were declared for this week’s by-election and despite the Prime Minister “supporting” the Conservative candidate by namechecking him incorrectly, Neil Shastri-Hurst a London barrister managed to snatch defeat out of the jaws of nailed on certainty and was defeated by the Liberal Democrats who romped home with a majority of 5,925. The field of those 14 candidates included the following parties: No Description represented by Yolande Kenward; Monster Raving Loony represented by Alan “Howling Laud” Hope; Rejoin EU represented by Boris Been Bunged. In short a by-election well up to the norms of English eccentricity for such a contest. GBP stronger on the back of the 0.15% hike in UK interest rates rather than the poor showing by the Conservatives in North Shropshire at GBP/EUR 1.1755.

Bangladesh

A survey of the fastest growing consumer markets in the world has an interesting big riser in Bangladesh which is predicted to rise 17 places to Number 11 in the world by 2030 which will cement its place in the top 20 largest economies in the world. Introduced in 1972 and issued at that time at par versus the Pakistani Rupee, the Taka(BDT) has steadily risen versus the Pakistani Rupee(PKR) in the past 4 years appreciating from PKR/BDT 0.73 to its current 0.50. Versus USD Taka steady at USD/BDT 85.67.

Hunky Dory

David Bowie fans will recall this gem from 1971 which was released this day 50 years ago. As they sent off to the then must read music paper Melody Maker for the 27 inch flair loon pants, scoop T shirts and other cutting edge fashion items advertised on the back page, little did those fans know that plain old David Jones from Beckenham was destined to become a global superstar. Here is Changes, one of the very best songs from the Hunky Dory album:

Still don’t know what I was waitin’ for
And my time was runnin’ wild
A million dead end streets and
Every time I thought I’d got it made
It seemed the taste was not so sweet
So I turned myself to face me
But I’ve never caught a glimpse
How the others must see the faker
I’m much too fast to take that test
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
Turn and face the strange
Ch-ch-changes
Don’t want to be a richer man
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
Turn and face the strange
Ch-ch-changes
There’s gonna have to be a different man
Time may change me
But I can’t trace time
Mmm, yeah
I watch the ripples change their size
But never leave the stream
Of warm impermanence
And so the days float through my eyes
But still the days seem the same
And these children that you spit on
As they try to change their worlds
Are immune to your consultations
They’re quite aware of what they’re goin’ through

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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