Morning Brief – Monday 11th

GBP…and where to over the next few weeks?

Never Gonna Give You Up-with thanks to Rick Astley (birthday #53 last week: congrats Rick!)

 

At the beginning of Valentine week (following the week that was) it is timely to remind ourselves of what the various outcomes could mean from the UK Parliament vote as and when it occurs. The chart below struck me as being useful and thanks to our friends at RBC CM who have collated it.

 

Possible scenarios and potential Sterling outcomes: worth preparing given that it now looks as if the Prime Minister’s plan is to tell Parliament that a vote will be pushed out from Thursday for at least two weeks.

 

Markets start the week with a further US Government Shutdown looking increasingly likely following Congressional talks running into trouble and the Democrats and Republicans rumoured not to be talking to each other over the weekend. Stock markets around the world closed last week mostly either small up or down with FTSE +0.73%, Dow +0.17% but with the Nikkei -2.40% despite the Hang Seng more positively at +1.36%-the Chinese market came back in a positive frame of mind after their New Year celebrations.

 

In Currency world GBP after some see saw days in the past couple of weeks remains steady and unchanged against USD and EUR and ZAR. That could come to an abrupt halt with increased volatility later in the week once the debate restarts on Brexit and the UK’s increasingly fractious relationship with Brussels. NB Brussels not necessarily all of Europe!

 

So in Rick’s words:

The Prime Minister is no doubt hoping that the Conservative Party this week of all weeks is:

Never gonna give you up

Never gonna let you down

Never gonna run around and desert you

Never gonna make you cry

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter