As we know Mervyn King gave a speech yesterday which was extremely negative leading to the short term Sterling status as a 'safe-haven' from European investments stripped. This has been shown by the drop below the psychologically important trading level of 1.25 against Euro and 1.6000 against the USD. This is all due to the stark reminder that the UK economy is so intrinsically linked to the performance of the Eurozone, with half of the UK exports heading to the troubled region. Support may be found thanks to a better than expected jobless figure, declining over 13,000 for April taking the total unemployed down 0.1 percent to 8.2 percent. However, lower growth forcasts and the strong message of uncertainty going forward means the market will continue to surprise with volatility still the main theme. Although aditional QE is regularly mooted, follwoing warnings of higher than targeted inflation, remaining above the 2 percent target until at least mid-way through 2013, Mervyn King stressed that QE was not his only option and may turn to other methods to help stimulate the economy through lower inflation and higher public spending, however, no further options were put forward.
The current tone in Europe has been discussed and dissected several times so only a summary is required. The main parties have failed to form a government in Greece and this has led to stark warnings of European depression following a likely exit from the Euro of Greece. The Election has been set for 17th June and it is widely expected the ECB will continue to support Greece up to this point. The only real update in the situation is the fear over the banking sector stemming from withdrawels, although this remains at a manageable level as fear increases so could the transfer of funds from Greek banks.
US housing starts came in at the strongest level for three years, with an annual rate os 720,000. Positive tones eminated from the US with the Fed minutes confirming a positive outlook on the economy going forward. Several members did mention that any loss in momentum could lead to extra stimulous but as we speak there are no plans for this. As with all nations a lot will depend on factors in Europe. US jobless claims are released today at 13:30 with improvements expected.
Morning Market Rates: (Please note: These are indication prices only, they are not offer rates)
GBP/USD: 1.5862
GBP/EUR: 1.2481
GBP/AUD: 1.5976
GBP/CHF: 1.4974
GBP/ZAR: 13.134
GBP/JPY: 125.64
USD/JPY: 78.213
USD/ZAR: 7.2576
EUR/USD: 1.2645
EUR/ZAR: 10.502
GBP/NZD: 2.0764
GBP/CAD: 1.6076
GBP/AED: 5.8217
Have a great day.